So you want to make money on Bitcoin, but don’t want to be the sucker who buys the top. Is it too late to buy bitcoin? Absolutely not. It’s not too late to buy bitcoin.
In fact, it doesn’t matter when you’re reading this article, it will never be too late to buy bitcoin. This may come as a surprise to you. Bitcoin can only go so high right? Early buyers already got mega-rich, so the run is over, right? No. That’s not how it works.
Bitcoin is unlike anything that’s ever existed before, so looking at it on the surface level will cause you to think about it using faulty frameworks and logical fallacies. That’s why it’s important to do your homework (like you’re doing now) and understand bitcoin for what it is – a new type of money. Nobody alive on Earth has ever witnessed the emergence of a new monetary system. We are only 12 years into a once-in-a-millennia event, we’re still very, very early in the journey of bitcoin becoming global money.
In this article, I’m going to cover 5 reasons why it’s not only not too late to buy bitcoin, it will never be too late. Bitcoin will always exist, and you will always need bitcoin.
5 Reason It’s Not Too Late To Buy Bitcoin
1. Bitcoin Is Not A Stock With Niche Market Limitations
Bitcoin is money, and everyone needs money. Not only does everyone need money, but there’s also unlimited demand for money too. In other words, there’s no saturation point where someone says, “I have enough money and don’t want any more of it. The desire and need for money is infinite, so the price of a bitcoin can go up forever.
This is unlike a stock, which is valued based on the company’s ability to generate profit by selling some kind of product or service, which is subject to market limitations. You can only sell so many widgets before the market becomes saturated. Of course, to remain profitable, companies improve their products or move into new markets, but this is something you track over time as an investor in a company.
There’s a process to proper stock valuations. You can see how much profit they generated over a period of time, listen to reports about future plans or expectations, compare their valuation to other companies in their sector, and so on. Comparing things like revenue generated, future expected sales, amount of outstanding shares, and other metrics allow you to make an assessment of how much the price per share should be.
It’s a fluid situation. Companies can issue more shares, or they can have a bad quarter. They can change strategy mid-year or run into unexpected tailwinds.
Bitcoin Is Not A Company
Can you value bitcoin like a stock? Not really. Bitcoin isn’t a company. Bitcoin doesn’t make products or deliver a service. There’s no CEO or marketing department. There are no quarterly reports or competitor acquisitions. However, I still like to look at how many people want bitcoin now vs how many people will want bitcoin in the future.
Since bitcoin is money, the potehttps://twitter.com/danheld/status/1660898281164091393?s=20ntial market is everyone in the world.
Right now, somewhere around 1% of the global population owns bitcoin. What do you think will happen to the price of bitcoin when adoption jumps to 10%? What about 90%? The cool thing about bitcoin is anyone can own bitcoin – that’s the point. You don’t need a bank account. You don’t even need an ID.
Furthermore, you have to consider what types of assets bitcoin can replace.
For example, how many people own real estate to protect their wealth from inflation? How many people own stocks, bonds, art, collectibles, and other non-cash items simply because they know cash loses value over time?
I often think about how easy it is to hold bitcoin in a wallet and just let it sit there, compared to tracking quarterly earnings of companies or paying to replace water heaters in rental units. How many people will decide that bitcoin is a cheaper, easier, more liquid store of value and start to move money out of traditional inflation hedges?
I believe the move from 1% to 100% global ownership, plus the demonetization of non-money assets like real estate is going to push the price of bitcoin to 1 million USD and beyond. Right now, the price is sitting at about $60k USD. We’re still early.
2. Your Friends And Family Probably Don’t Own Bitcoin Yet
I’m a Bitcoin Guy™. I listen to 1-2 hours of podcasts every day. I’ve read 80% of the Bitcoin books available. I run my own node. I buy hardware wallets just to test them out. I read as many articles as I have time for. While people are talking to me IRL I’m secretly hoping to steer the conversation to something Bitcoin-related.
It’s my thing.
Yet, somehow, nobody in my life gives a shit about Bitcoin.
From what I gather by reading tweets and listening to podcasts from bitcoiners, this is pretty common. Even big names in the sphere of bitcoin influencers have told stories about their parents or high school friends who still don’t get bitcoin. They may post screenshots of their mom texting them to sell bitcoin now that the price has run up, or a buddy from back in the day asking how many bitcoin they have.
It’s pretty unheard of to have a group of people in your life who are all on the same page about bitcoin, and this is my point. If you’re reading this right now, YOU are now a Bitcoin Guy™ or Bitcoin Girl™. You are the early adopter because you’re interested, you’re doing your homework, and you have already bought, or are going to buy bitcoin.
Your Friends And Family Definitely Are Not Bitcoin Maximalists
How many of your friends are doing the same? Probably not many, if any at all. If you aren’t sure, test the waters. Try talking about bitcoin with some friends or family and see how fast the conversation devolves from monetary history and inflation as a hidden tax, into, “OMG did you see Elon tweet about Dogecoin? So funny. It’s all a Ponzi!”
While it’s annoying to field those questions, and lonely to be the only person in your life who cares about something as fascinating as Bitcoin, that’s also good news. You’re still early. No, you weren’t a cypherpunk in 2009. You didn’t mine bitcoin with your gaming laptop GPU in 2011 either. You can’t go back in time and change that. But you’re here now, and that’s what matters.
3. It Still Takes Work To Understand Bitcoin
If something is difficult, most people won’t do it. While bitcoin is easy to buy, it’s difficult to understand. Nothing like Bitcoin has ever existed before, and nobody alive on Earth right now has ever witnessed the monetization of a brand new asset. So-called experts and qualified big brains in our society struggle to understand it, even though they have the time, resources, and (what I consider) duty. So, it’s natural that your average person doesn’t “get it” right away.
As it stands, if you want to understand Bitcoin, you have to put in the work.
In the future, this won’t be the case. Education in Bitcoin will get better. Kids will grow up knowing what a timechain is and will learn about the invention of bitcoin in school. Bitcoin will be just another thing people talk about around the dinner table.
Honey, I think we should start putting a little bit of money into our bitcoin savings for the kids’ college.
Son, make sure to put away 10% of your paycheck into a bitcoin wallet so you always have some for an emergency.
We’re not there yet. Right now, you still have to go out of your way to learn about this thing, and wrap your head around new concepts.
Everyone Buys Bitcoin At The Price They Deserve
How many people understood the power of computers and the internet in 1992? Not many. It was basically for nerdy enthusiasts and people who needed it for work. I still remember how difficult it was to find the right drivers for my Windows 95 PC so that I could play some crappy video games. Now, everyone carries a super computer in their pocket with power and capabilities that far exceeds anything we had during that era.
Likewise, Bitcoin will get easier to understand and use over time. It’s already gone through a massive transformation from the first launch in 2009 until now. I’ll be honest – even though I knew about bitcoin in 2012, it was just too difficult for me to understand and use. I didn’t put in the work and ignored it until 2017.
Everyone buys bitcoin at the price they deserveBitcoin Proverb
By definition, most people are not early adopters. It’s hard to be an early adopter! While there are still some technical hurdles to overcome with some of the more complex functions of Bitcoin (multisig, lightning, private transactions, etc), in terms of buying bitcoin, the main hurdle right now is education. Lots of people don’t want to buy bitcoin because it’s unfamiliar, and it takes work to understand it.
The good news is that the opportunity is sitting right in front of you. Will this be the moment you decide to change your life and become an early adopter of bitcoin, or will you wait until it’s completely safe and commonplace?
4. Fiat Currencies Will Debase Forever, So Bitcoin Will Grow Forever
Even if we fast forward 10 or 20 years, it will not be too late to buy bitcoin. This is not so much a prediction about bitcoin, as it is a prediction about fiat currency.
We know, without a doubt, 100% guaranteed, that any fiat currency you hold right now will be worth less next year, and every year after that. It doesn’t matter if you hold the Turkish lira, the British pound, or the US dollar.
Even if you don’t count all the crazy money printing and stimulus programs starting in 2008 and then reinvigorated in 2020, fiat currencies are designed to lose value over time. Governments don’t want citizens “hoarding” (AKA saving) cash because they think it’s bad for the economy, so they punish savers by programming inflation into the money.
It doesn’t matter when you buy bitcoin because the US dollar is a shitcoin.
Even a best-case scenario, where you own US dollars and inflation hits their low target of 2%, that’s still a 20% loss of purchasing power over 10 years, and 40%+ loss over 20 years. Almost half your money is gone after two decades – guaranteed!
Plus, consider that this is the rosiest picture of “ideal” inflation of basic consumer goods. Things like housing can rise as much as 20% in a single year, so your “forever home” you plan to purchase when you retire could be 200% more expensive by the time you buy.
Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottomBitcoin Proverb
5. Bitcoin Is Savings Technology, Not Get-Rich Technology
A lot of this article has been about price talk. Yes, some people got rich in bitcoin, and some people may get rich from bitcoin in the future. Getting rich is not the point of bitcoin, and if you are into bitcoin for that reason alone, then you’re going to have a hard time with the volatile price action in the meantime.
There’s nothing wrong with expecting price appreciation in the future, and there’s nothing wrong with buying bitcoin because you think it will gain purchasing power in the future faster than any other asset. However, you need to recognize that there’s something more that’s going on below the surface.
I came to get rich, but stayed for the revolutionBitcoin Proverb
Plus, the truth is that most of us don’t have a huge chunk of cash ready to deploy as soon as we find the perfect investment. I’ll hazard to guess that most of you reading this are not sitting on a stockpile of $100k cash, looking to drop it into bitcoin once you feel confident enough.
Buy Bitcoin For Yourself. Don’t Worry What Others Are Stacking.
Most of us plebs have to work normal jobs, and sock away little bits of bitcoin here and there as we’re able to save. Saving 10% of your paycheck this month to put into bitcoin is not going to make you wealthy overnight. It probably won’t make you rich in any capacity. If that’s all you want to do, then stop. The way to be wealthy is to live below your means, save for a rainy day, and keep your money stored in a vehicle that retains purchasing power over time.
That’s where the phrase, “Stay humble, stack sats” came from. Basically, save what you can and do your best. Invest in yourself. Become a sovereign individual. Become antifragile. The Bitcoin Life is not about getting rich then retiring on your yacht. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Bitcoin is an accumulation game.
For some, maybe you can put away $1,000 per month into bitcoin. For others, it may be just a few hundred dollars. Bitcoin is for everyone, and it will help you in proportion to what you can contribute.
It’s never too late to buy bitcoin because it’s never too late to save money for your future.
It’s Never Too Late To Buy Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s function is to be non-state money that cannot be debased by companies, politicians, or anyone else. Even if we look 50 years into the future, that will still be its job. Even if you don’t buy any bitcoin right now, and even if you don’t buy any bitcoin for the next 50 years, bitcoin will still be able to perform its function when you decide to buy.
Maybe you’ll miss out on the 10,000% gains during that period, but that’s beside the point. You’ll still be able to buy bitcoin and store your wealth in a secure, incorruptible, globally recognized form of money. Bitcoin will still work as intended.
We’re Still Early (And Might Be For A While Still)
Aside from that, I want to emphasize that I think we’re still really early on in Bitcoin’s rise to become the predominant global money. Even top financial experts, economists, and politicians struggle to understand Bitcoin. They still think it’s a Ponzi scheme or Chuck-E-Cheese tokens. They don’t get the difference between crypto scams and digital money.
Think about your brother, your neighbor, and your coworker. Do they own any bitcoin? Probably not. Believe it or not, you’re an early adopter.
You may look at a price like $50,000 or $60,000 and say to yourself, “Wow, that’s expensive!”, but many people said that at $10,000. And $500. And $8. Is right now a “top” in a price run and should you wait a week to buy? How much will bitcoin go up in the near term? I don’t know. Nobody knows, despite what the chartbois may say on Twitter.
Where I am confident, is that bitcoin’s US dollar price will be higher in 10 years than it will be right now, so I’m still buying.
Plus, everyone thinks they’re late to bitcoin. Here’s a post on the bitcoin forums in 2013 from famous Adam Back of Blockstream.
The Real Questions You Should Be Asking
Bitcoin is a volatile asset right now, so it could lose 20% value one day, and gain 50% or 100% in the next few weeks. Buying bitcoin for the short term doesn’t really make sense because nobody can predict the market. Bitcoin is good as a long-term store of wealth, not a short-term way to double your money. Even if you bought the 2017 top of $20,000, by 2021, your purchasing power would have increased 3x. Buy & hold is the strategy.
If you are still wondering if right now is a good time to buy bitcoin because you want to maximize your fiat gains in US dollar value, then you still don’t get what bitcoin is about. The question I always ask myself when I consider selling bitcoin is, “What would I hold instead of bitcoin?”.
What Would Actually Buy After You Sold Your Bitcoin?
If you sell bitcoin, that wealth you accumulated needs to be stored somewhere else. It doesn’t make sense to put it back in US dollars because their purchasing power is being inflated away at 2-3% per year or more. Why would take money out of a hard asset and put it back into USD so it can lose 2% purchasing power per year? Flip flopping from USD to bitcoin based on short-term market fluctuations makes you a trader.
Stocks & real estate have their own pros & cons to consider as well. Will you be satisfied with 7% returns on the S&P while bitcoin continues to do 200% CAGR? What about real estate – do you have $50,000 for a down payment, and can you manage the property with renters breaking toilets?
There’s nothing wrong will selling bitcoin in my opinion, but realize that there are tradeoffs to every type of money you choose to hold.
How Much Of My Wealth Should I Hold In Bitcoin?
I plan to sell as little bitcoin as possible if I can help it, which means another question I have to ask myself is, “How much of my wealth should I hold in Bitcoin?”
However you choose to measure it, you should have a target allocation in mind. 1% of liquid net worth? 10% of total net worth? 50% of monthly paychecks? There are options all the way up and down the scale from nocoiner to bitcoiner, and how much money you put into bitcoin depends on your conviction about the future of money.