John McAfee, the swashbuckling British-American businessman and rogue cybersecurity pioneer, was one of the most polarizing figures in the technology sphere.
He shot to prominence for developing the first commercial antivirus software, a feat that turned him into a household name. But McAfee wasn’t one to rest on his laurels. He plunged headfirst into the volatile world of Bitcoin with a zeal that would make a conquistador blush.
So, what exactly was McAfee’s perspective on Bitcoin?
His views were somewhat enigmatic, oscillating between extremes. At times, he was an ardent supporter, championing its cause; at other moments, he dismissed it derogatorily as ‘shitcoins.’
What Did John McAfee Think About Bitcoin?
At one point, he predicted – no, proclaimed – that Bitcoin would skyrocket to a staggering $500,000 by the end of 2017.
The condition? If he was wrong, he would “eat his own dick on national television.” Some striking levels of commitment. (Or madness. Or both.)
McAfee never made good on the promise; however, he risked his manhood once again in 2020, this time betting Bitcoin would reach 1 million.
Despite his headline-grabbing antics and his unfortunate, controversial demise in a Spanish prison, allegedly taking his own life, McAfee was unwavering in his convictions.
He saw Bitcoin not just as a financial asset or a route to quick riches but as a tool for emancipation – an anarchist’s dream, a way to wrest control from traditional financial institutions.
His relationship with Bitcoin was as tempestuous as the man himself. Declarations of undying faith sat side by side with outrageous, often scathing criticism regarding both the privacy issues of Bitcoin and its irrelevancy.
Amidst the noise, conspiracy, and spectacle, his message was unequivocal: Bitcoin is the future, and those dismissing it are just relics of a rapidly fading past.
McAfee’s Wild Price Predictions
John McAfee has made many wild price predictions over the years, ranging from several hundred thousand dollars up to several million dollars. The main premise of his argument seemed to be that there is a reflexive relationship between the price of bitcoin and the price to mine bitcoin.
He mentions many times over these interviews that he ran a mining company that would mine a bitcoin for $1000-$2000, and they would only do that if the price was above that number in order to generate a profit. As more people catch on to this profit-generating business model, more miners join.
Subsequently, more people join the bitcoin network, buying bitcoin, driving the price up. With price going up, more miners join, and are able to invest in more mining hardware to their operation, driving hashrate higher, further securing the network.
Video: Bitcoin $500,000 By 2020
In earlier interviews, McAfee seemed a lot more coherent in his understanding and advocation for bitcoin, explaining why bitcoin has value, why people want it, and why the price is not a bubble, in contrast to what Mark Cuban has said (in video below). The only thing I disagreed with him on in this video below was his comments about blockchain, but the rest is worth watching.
Video: Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million Dollars In 2020
In the video below we get a bit more of the conspiratorial ramblings of McAfee, claiming that cryptocurrency will lead to the IRS being unable to collect taxes. I don’t really buy into this argument. People want to live in houses, and if you live in a house, the tax man can find you. There’s a reason McAfee was living on a boat, bouncing around between non-US jurisdictions.
Video: McAfee $5 Million Dollar Bitcoin Prediction
This video is pretty short and nothing much to comment on. Just some stuff about how he came around to a 5 million dollar price prediction. Personally, I don’t think he really had a set value in his mind other than “a lot of money”, which is why he quotes so many valuations across different interviews.
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The Model T Bitcoin
McAfee was a figure renowned for his eccentricity and paranoia, with some even hailing him as a visionary genius. His position on Bitcoin was marked by a baffling inconsistency and a dance of contradiction.
Amid the whirlwind of bets, ruses, and a deluge of memorable statements, one could glean some authentic insights into McAfee’s sentiments about Bitcoin.
These were, however, invariably presented with the unabashed audacity that one could only anticipate from such a character as McAfee.
What Does It Cost To Create A US Dollar?
In September 2014, McAfee was a guest on CNBC, where he challenged the host’s claim that Bitcoin was inherently fraudulent. McAfee retorted:
“However, sir, you called Bitcoin a fraud. I’m a Bitcoin miner. We create Bitcoins. It costs over one thousand dollars per coin to create a Bitcoin. What does it cost to create a U.S. dollar? Which one is the fraud? Because the dollar costs whatever the paper costs, but it costs me and other miners over a thousand dollars per coin – it’s called ‘proof of work.’”
During a 2018 interview with NewsBTC, he doubled down on his endorsement of Bitcoin, asserting:
“Bitcoin will become the gold standard. Bitcoin will always be that standard, that you can keep in a wallet offline somewhere and think, this is my retirement income. It is the grandfather; it will always be the best.”
McAfee Flip-Flops, Calls BTC A Shitcoin
However, in 2020, McAfee’s commentary on Bitcoin took a decidedly negative turn. He openly favored Bitcoin alternatives, evident in his tweet:
Whichever Bitcoin Maximalist came up with the term “Shitcoin” for all other coins; Was brilliant. But we all know that the future of Crypto rests with the Alt Coins. Bitcoin – Old, clunky, no security, no smart contracts, no DAPs…is the true Shitcoin.
@officialmcafee
Around the same time, he began questioning the relevance of Bitcoin with this tweet:
Bitcoin was first. It’s an ancient technology. All know it. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more. Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile?
@officialmcafee
In July 2020, he refuted his earlier predictions of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, tweeting:
No. The likelihood is increasing. There was no way for Bitcoin to ever reach $1 mil. Run the math. That would make it’s market cap greater than the entire GDP of the North American continent. Who could be stupid enough to believe that????
@officialmcafee
Video: Bitcoin Is Going To Zero
Deep Diving into McAfee’s Digital Delirium
Within the chaotic maelstrom of conspiracy theories, cybersecurity debates, and Bitcoin discourse, John McAfee’s opinions often mirrored the enigmatic and provocative nature of his life.
Despite his unpredictable stance and audacious predictions, it remains imperative to scrutinize and comprehend his views, to discern whether they offer enlightenment or misguidance.
Proof-of-Work VS Proof-of-Paper
John McAfee’s proclamations often served as catalysts for deeper conversations. In a stark rebuttal to Bitcoin naysayers, he highlighted the contrast between the creation of traditional fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar and the ‘proof of work‘ process intrinsic to Bitcoin mining.
Proof of Work Mining
Bitcoin mining is essentially the process of validating and recording transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain, the public ledger of all Bitcoin transactions. This process is carried out by miners, who use powerful computers to search for random numbers (not complicated math problems, as normally reported by the mainstream media)
Once the acceptable number is discovered, the miner adds a new ‘block’ of transactions to the blockchain. This is the ‘proof of work’ that McAfee refers to – it demonstrates that the miner has done the computational work required to add a new block to the chain.
The difficulty of finding the number solve adjusts automatically every 2016 blocks or approximately every two weeks. Difficulty increases or decreases based on the number of participants in the system. As more miners compete, difficulty increases. All miners compete on a equal playing field, and the only way to increase your chances of getting the block subsidy (new bitcoin + fees) is to increase how much energy you use.
In other words, it costs real-world resources to compete for digital money.
How Much Does It Cost To Mine A Bitcoin?
On average, a new block is added to the blockchain every ten minutes, regardless of the total computational power of the network. As more miners join the network, the difficulty of the problems increases, requiring more computational power and energy to solve them.
So, how is the cost of mining Bitcoin calculated? The primary costs involved in Bitcoin mining are the cost of the hardware (the mining rigs), the electricity used by these rigs, and operational costs such as cooling and maintenance.
The cost of a Bitcoin is essentially the total cost of the resources expended (hardware, electricity, operation) to mine it.
However, it’s important to note that the cost to mine a Bitcoin is not the same for everyone. Factors such as the miner’s location (which affects electricity costs), the efficiency of their mining hardware, and the current difficulty of mining all play a role in determining the cost.
In 2017 McAfee estimated the cost just over a thousand dollars to mine a coin. These days (2023), I think I remember hearing it costs around $10,000 to mine one. These costs can vary significantly between different miners and locations.
Bitcoins Model T Metaphor
McAfee’s assessment of Bitcoin’s technological prowess, or lack thereof, raised many eyebrows. Let’s put it under the microscope. I think the comparison falls apart pretty quickly.
Bitcoin was the first of its kind – a working peer-2-peer digital money that was not issued or maintained by a third party. There had been previous attempts, but none worked, and none survived.
The Model T was not the first car. It was not even Henry Ford’s first car he ever built. It was not the first internal combustion engine. The Model T did not solve any new problem in any unique kind of way.
The Model is famous because it was built by Henry Fords unique manufacturing process that made it so inexpensive that the majority of Americans could (and did) afford to buy one.
What Invention Is Bitcoin Most Like?
In this way, maybe bitcoin could be more aptly compared to the first airplane, something that had only existed in theory up until the point in history where someone figured it out. All modern airplanes are essentially an extension of the basic concept of lift.
But eve then, the analogy isn’t perfect. Flight changed a lot for the world, but it didn’t set in motion a fundamental power shift between people and government.
In this way, I think the invention of bitcoin is more like the invention of the printing press, and there are many apt connections between the two. In short, prior to the printing press, religious institutions were in power, and able to hand down the word of God. The printing press allowed for mass printing of bibles, meaning every home could read the bible and form their own relationship with God.
The invention of bitcoin takes the power of the money printer away from government institutions gives people the power to decide their own monetary fate.
Some people like to back as far as the invention of fire, which fundamentally changed how humans think. Cooked food is what allowed for smaller digestive tracts, larger brains, and more complex thoughts. It is one of the few main catalysts that sparked the evolution of the humans we are today.
I think this is a bit too far back. Although bitcoin does have the ability to change how we interact with each other and our environment, I don’t think that bitcoin will spark the next evolution in humanity. Just my 2 cents.
The Million Dollar Bitcoin
John McAfee’s brash prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million was always met with equal parts skepticism and intrigue. “Run the math,” he said. While the math is indeed daunting, it’s worth considering a few factors that could potentially propel Bitcoin to such heights.
First and foremost, it’s absolutely possible that vitcoin could reach the magic $1 million dollar mark (and beyond).
Firstly, as global inflation rates rise, Bitcoin’s proposition as a ‘hard’ store of value becomes increasingly appealing. Bitcoin, much like gold, has a limited supply, which shields it from inflationary pressures.
If Bitcoin’s status as ‘digital gold’ solidifies and it manages to capture even a fraction of the gold market, its value could skyrocket.
Overtaking the gold standard isn’t far-fetched either. With a market cap of around $500 billion, if Bitcoin were to usurp gold’s position, it would catapult its value well into the six-figure range.
It’s a lofty goal, but not outside the realm of possibility, given the rapid digitization of financial systems and growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.
Now, let’s talk about LogFit models. These models, used in various forms of statistical analysis, plot data on a logarithmic scale to identify trends that might not be immediately apparent in linear data representation.
In the context of Bitcoin, LogFit models plot the cryptocurrency’s price history on a logarithmic scale, thereby illustrating its long-term exponential growth.
These models suggest that a $1 million price isn’t entirely out of the question, providing a mathematical basis for such predictions and adding another layer of credibility to the notion.
While McAfee’s $1 million Bitcoin forecast by 2020 didn’t see fruition, it isn’t entirely devoid of foundation given enough time and the right circumstances.
The convergence of rising inflation, growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital store of value, and the mathematical backing of LogFit models all point to a future where a million-dollar Bitcoin isn’t just possible – it’s plausible.
McAfee Caught Shilling Shitcoins
In the bull run of 2017, ICOs were extremely popular. These were small companies or organizations launching their own tokens that supposedly had value to exchange for digital goods or services. Some where legitimate enterprises trying to cash in on a trend, and others were straight up scams trying to fleece people.
McAfee, touted as an expert in the space, or at least looked to as an authority on cryptocurrency (for whatever reason) got in on the action by starting a “coin of the day” discussion on Twitter. He’d give a 200 character review of a coin and why he thought it was useful.
These reviews were not in depth, and basically served as a press release for coin issuers.
To nobody’s surprise, the public quickly caught on that they could invest in the McAfee coin of the day and attempt to scalp some quick profit before the whole thing collapsed.
He can pretty much spew out ANY coin, regardless of how good it is, and be pretty much 100% sure to double his investment in that coin by pumping and dumping. So can any of us as well by riding the wave.
I guess the question is, for how many coins of the day posts do you guys think this is sustainable for?
Reddit
Also to nobody’s surprise, it turns out he was getting paid by companies to promote their shitcoins. One of the absolutely worst shills of the century was for Zombie Coin, which claimed to have a use case of funding zombie research? Or being a currency in the zombie apocalypse? It’s unclear to me.
The lawsuit from the SEC was eventually dismissed in 2020, after McAfee’s death, but I think it’s a moment worth remembering. McAfee wasn’t your friendly neighborhood bitcoin influencer, looking out for n00bs online. He was a freedom lover who was gonna get paid when he saw the opportunity, even at the expense of idiots buying Zombie Coin.
Spectators Weigh In On McAfee And Bitcoin
When it came to John McAfee’s opinions on Bitcoin, the community was not a silent spectator. From his million-dollar bets to his flip-flopping views, the reactions were as expected – colorful.
Mike Adams of Natural News devoted an entire disingenuous article to McAfee’s Proof of Work statements regarding the cost of Bitcoin mining. Here are some choice quotes:
“McAfee claims that “artificial work” is actually “proof of work.” In reality, it’s proof of nothing more than the incredible stupidity of the mining infrastructure which is now burning more electricity than a city of one million people just to keep the Bitcoin blockchain from collapsing”
And this gem:
“Mr. McAfee. It has no more value than the GPU calculations of a nine-year-old kid playing a first person shooter on a Saturday afternoon. Yeah, his rig is running all sorts of complex calculations, but at the end of the day, there’s nothing to show for it other than Cheetos crumbs that fell between the cushions of the couch.”
Obviously this is just some random guy whose opinion doesn’t matter, but his opinions on proof-of-work are quite comment. Most spectators on the outside of the world of bitcoin haven’t given a though to why money has value, and why bitcoin is money.
Bitcoiners aimed at McAfee’s political aspirations as being a reason for his flip-flopping, one user Tweeted
Lol, I wonder if you just flip flopping because you are making a run at politics You know as well as I know that if bitcoin fail the whole eco system will too and alts will become the domain extension (not .com but the useless rest)
@wonderbitcoin
Many also express skepticism over McAfee’s sudden shift from Bitcoin bull to naysayer, implying of course McAfee’s opinions might be influenced by ulterior motives:
He must be waiting for payment from the CEO of an altcoin before he tells us which one is the future,
@dka218
,
P.H. Madore of FullyCrypto.com weighed in over the shitcoin remarks:
“McAfee may be right about the psychology of the word “shitcoin,” but he’s probably not right about applying the term to Bitcoin. Bitcoin proper is the most liquid, and sought after, cryptocurrency in the world. That’s why its price continually goes up. You can’t necessarily say that about altcoins, especially those whose price rises in relation to their Bitcoin value”
Tone Vays, a former Wall Street quant, deftly underscored the distinction between improvement and innovation with a brilliant tweet
There is almost 0 innovation difference between 1917 Model T & Modern Day Tesla. In my view we still drive the Model T today (it just has things like seat belts & gps added) Why is it so hard for @officialmcafee & many others to see #Bitcoin adding additional features?
@ToneVays
Suggesting that likening Bitcoin to a Model T Ford wasn’t quite hitting the mark. Vays argued that the evolution from the Model T to the cutting-edge vehicles of today hasn’t been a revolution of innovation but a journey of incremental improvements – a journey that Bitcoin, too, is navigating with grace and grit.
Finally, on the subject of McAfee losing his bet and promising to eat his member on national TV, @RMac18 simply tweeted, “John, what’s for lunch today?”
My Take On McAfee And Bitcoin
Having lived through the bull market of 2017 and personally witnessed all of McAfee’s shenanigans, then going back and doing research for this article, I have a couple thoughts to close out.
The number one thing that sticks out in my mind is that throughout all I read and watched, I don’t think I saw McAfee engaged in a single technical discussion about bitcoin. All of his positive and negative comments were very surface-level and generic.
He loved bitcoin because it couldn’t be printed, or he hated bitcoin because it wasn’t private. There was no nuance. No explanation of the tradeoffs.
Proof-of-Nothing
Personally, I don’t think he really understood much about bitcoin at all. Sure, he mined it, and was able to demonstrate some level of understanding proof-of-work, but his comments about alt coins being the future of money really makes me question how deeply he understood it. If a company launches an alt coin with no hash power behind it, how can it carry value?
Maybe I’m being off base here, but I think he was riding the coat tails of his success with his McAfee software and everyone participating in propping him up as an expert on crypto was suffering from the appeal to authority fallacy. They were stuck assuming that because he was an expert in computers, that he was an expert on bitcoin.
Appeal To Authority Fallacy
I also think that McAfee loved the attention.
I never quite understood why some people can’t just do interesting things. They have to do interesting things, take a video, and then show everyone how interesting they are. McAfee did lead an incredibly unique and adventurous life, but he also made sure everyone knew what he was doing.
These numbskull news outlets who have no idea what’s going on in the world of Bitcoin needed an expert, and McAfee was happy to play the role for another 5 minute segment to stay relevant.
You Can Love Freedom And Still Not Understand Bitcoin
I do think that McAfee loved freedom, and loved the freedom aspect of bitcoin. He hated the government, and loved private money in bitcoin. If bitcoin could pay for guns and hookers in international waters, he was all for it. Beyond that, I don’t think he gave much money to the history of money or game theory monetary competition.
So no hate on him, I just wouldn’t take anything he’s ever said about bitcoin seriously. He was a complicated human like the rest of us, and we just got to see all sides of his personality publicly.
Even so, there seemed to always be a grain of truth to be gleaned from even his most wild conspiracies, and his love of freedom of all kinds resonated with Bitcoiners. Perhaps that’s what made McAfee such an unforgettable character in the Bitcoin scene.
In any case, rest in peace, John.
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